Statistical Probabilities

With the secret of his genetically-engineered past out in the open, Bashir is asked to work with a group of others like him. Aggressive Jack, sensual Lauren, giddy Patrick, and shy Sarina are highly intelligent — but equally dysfunctional — and have spent their lives in an institution. It is hoped that Bashir can help them assimilate into "normal" society, and while he is initially put off by their antisocial behavior, Bashir is excited by the prospect of helping them succeed.

When Gul Damar, the new head of the Cardassian government, announces that Cardassia and the Dominion want to open peace talks with the Federation, Jack, Patrick, and Lauren put together the story of how Damar came to power — just by watching his speech. Bashir asks Sisko for a transcript of the upcoming talks so that his charges can analyze the proceedings.

Damar and the Dominion's Weyoun appear ready to concede territories, but Bashir's group spots a problem. They determine that the enemy alliance is not mentioning a star system which contains the raw materials for ketracel-white, the drug used to control the Jem'Hadar, because they want it for themselves. Bashir presents this information, along with a dizzying array of further predictions, to Sisko. When he sees that the projected outcomes are all backed up with equations, Sisko informs Starfleet Command of the group's talents. Starfleet responds by giving them access to classified information on its battle readiness.

The savants determine that the Federation will lose the war, with casualties in the hundreds of billions. Bashir takes this grim news to Sisko, advising that the Federation surrender. Naturally, Sisko refuses, and without his endorsement, Starfleet rejects Bashir's recommendation. Hearing this news, the group decides to give the Dominion leaders information that will help them take control of the Alpha Quadrant. While the plan will save lives, Bashir refuses to participate, forcing Jack to incapacitate him.

The group arranges a meeting with Weyoun and Damar, and Sarina is left behind to guard Bashir. After convincing her to free him, Bashir alerts Odo to the impending meeting, and the plan is foiled. The savants are sent back to the institution, and Bashir takes comfort in the fact that if they couldn't foretell Sarina's defection, perhaps their predictions of doom for the Federation may also be wrong.